Wise mid-market rates, with forecasts that learn from their own misses.
“Predicted” for a past day is the latest forecast made before that day; “Miss” is actual − predicted.
| Date | Actual | Predicted | Last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 Sun | 260.175 | 260.172 | 258.700 |
| Nov 2 Mon | 260.218 | 260.149 | 258.322 |
| Nov 3 Tue | 259.769 | 260.244 | 258.504 |
| Nov 4 Wed | 259.627 | 259.787 | 258.504 |
| Nov 5 Thu | 260.059 | 259.629 | 258.351 |
| Nov 6 Fri | 260.025 | 260.041 | 257.803 |
| Nov 7 Sat | 259.153 | 260.046 | 258.421 |
| Nov 8 Sun | 259.153 | 259.194 | 258.556 |
| Nov 9 Today | 259.715 live | 259.165 | 258.447 |
| Nov 10 Tue | — | 259.561 | 258.274 |
| Nov 11 Wed | — | 259.541 | 258.274 |
| Nov 12 Thu | — | 259.543 | 258.333 |
| Nov 13 Fri | — | 259.539 | 258.321 |
| Nov 14 Sat | — | 259.531 | 258.485 |
| Nov 15 Sun | — | 259.499 | 257.733 |
| Nov 16 Mon | — | 259.520 | 258.102 |
| Nov 17 Tue | — | 259.521 | 258.797 |
| Nov 18 Wed | — | 259.534 | 258.797 |
| Nov 19 Thu | — | 259.522 | 258.889 |
| Nov 20 Fri | — | 259.522 | 258.665 |
| Nov 21 Sat | — | 259.531 | 259.456 |
| Nov 22 Sun | — | 259.536 | 259.843 |
| Nov 23 Mon | — | 259.532 | 260.174 |
| Nov 24 Tue | — | 259.508 | 259.786 |
| Nov 25 Wed | — | 259.518 | 259.786 |
| Nov 26 Thu | — | 259.524 | 259.907 |
| Nov 27 Fri | — | 259.500 | 259.317 |
| Nov 28 Sat | — | 259.501 | 259.330 |
| Nov 29 Sun | — | 259.508 | 259.412 |
| Nov 30 Mon | — | 259.516 | 259.752 |
What the recipient gets, by provider (Wise comparison, bank transfer).
Signals the models use alongside the rate history.
Every forecast is stored. When Wise publishes the real rate for that day, the miss (delta) is written to a learning table. Each run, the last 60 days of misses set how much each model is trusted at each forecast horizon. They also set a bias correction, which is switched on only when it has actually reduced errors.
| Horizon | Avg miss | Random walk | Within 0.25% | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 0.126% | 0.126% | 81% | 59 |
| 2–3 days | 0.194% | 0.191% | 70% | 118 |
| 4–7 days | 0.238% | 0.228% | 60% | 236 |
| 8–14 days | 0.284% | 0.276% | 54% | 413 |
| 15–31 days | 0.377% | 0.373% | 37% | 1003 |
| Day | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | 259.194 | 259.153 | -0.041 -0.02% |
| Nov 7 | 260.046 | 259.153 | -0.893 -0.34% |
| Nov 6 | 260.041 | 260.025 | -0.016 -0.01% |
| Nov 5 | 259.629 | 260.059 | +0.430 +0.17% |
| Nov 4 | 259.787 | 259.627 | -0.160 -0.06% |
| Nov 3 | 260.244 | 259.769 | -0.475 -0.18% |
| Nov 2 | 260.149 | 260.218 | +0.069 +0.03% |
| Nov 1 | 260.172 | 260.175 | +0.003 +0.00% |
| Model | ≤1d | ≤3d | ≤7d | ≤14d | ≤31d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holt trend | 18% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 22% |
| 30-day drift | 16% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 7% |
| Random walk | 18% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 23% |
| USD-strength (ECB basket) | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 9% |
| Mean reversion | 19% | 21% | 24% | 35% | 28% |
| Last months' same-day path | 11% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 11% |
| Bias correction | off | off | off | off | off |
Bar = share of the final forecast; hover for the model's average miss. “Last months' same-day path” replays how the rate moved from this date in each of the previous three months.